Posted: Apr 03, 2019
1st Qtr Old Town Home Sales Up 44%

1st Qtr 2019 Old Town single family home sales had a Hot January, a mild February and a warm March.  March's fifteen sales finished the Quarter with thirty-nine sales, 11% over the 2014 - 2018, 5-year average and a significant 44% increase over a soft Jan - March 2018. Historically, the 1st Qtr comprises 25% of annual sales. Mar - Jun sales comprise 44% of average annual Closings so we're just now entering the meat of the "season". On prices, March's average sales price of $1.285 caused the quarter's average sales price to finish at $1.346M, the eleventh Quarter since Jan - Mar 2016 to finish over $1M.

 

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2010 to March 31, 2019. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of 2018 end of year sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, is here.

 

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Two, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2019. The average number of days to sell is 97 days.
  • There are four 1/1 homes for sale from $494K to $599K.
  • The 2019 average sale price of $630,000 is 24% more than the average sale price for 2018.
  • In 2015, twelve homes sold, but sales have fallen since. In 2016, 9 sold, in 2017, 4 sales, in 2018, 5 sales.
  • The average size of the 2019 homes sold is 690 sq.ft., slightly above average. The average sale price per sqft. of $912 is 10% above 2018.

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Eight, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2019.  The average number of days to sell is 129 days.
  • The average Sold price of $564,000 is down 28% from 2018 which at $784K was up 41% from 2017. The $564K is 70% above the 2011 low.
  • Eleven 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $399K to $925K.
  • Sixteen 2/1's sold in 2016, eleven in 2017, twenty-five in 2018.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 190 sales.

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Ten, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2019. The average number of  Days to sell is 50 Days, 56% less than 2018.
  • The average sold price of $910,000 is up 10% from 2018 and is 114% above the low in 2009.
  • Seventeen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $650,000 and $1.575M.
  • The average Sold price per sqft for 2019 is $671.  In 2018 the average was $747, in 2017 the average was $704.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 295 sales.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Five, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2019. The average number of Days to sell is 91 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $1,435,000 is up 36% from 2018 which was 2% above 2017 and is 211% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $873, up 27% from 2018.
  • Fifteen 3/2's sold in 2016, twenty-seven in 2017 and twenty-five in 2018.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town with 210 sales.

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Six, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2019. The average number of Days to sell is 67 Days.
  • The average sold price of $1.416M is down 8% from 2018 which was 9% above 2017.
  • The average Sold price per sqft. of $795 is down 6% from 2018.
  • Nineteen homes sold in both 2015 and 2016 with twenty-two sales in 2017 and seventeen in 2018.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • One, 4Bed/3Bath home has sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2019.  Nine homes sold in 2018 at an average number of days to sell of 63 days.
  • The sold price of this 2019 sale was $3M, up 61% over 2018. The 5-year average sales price is $1.732M.
  • The 5-year average sales price per sqft is $859.
  • There are thirteen homes for sale, ranging in price from $950K to $3.7M.
  • Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an erratic up trend in average sale price since 2013.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Zero, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2019. Fourteen homes sold in 2018, the most on record.
  • There are eight 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.85M to $3.4M.
  • The 2018 average Sold price of $2.424M was up 14% over 2017 which was 1% below 2016.
  • The 2018 average sold price per sq.ft. of $912 was 20% above 2017.
  • Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with eight in 2016, six in 2017 and fourteen in 2018.  Since 2015, price action has been steady, $2M - $2.4M, despite a limited and choppy number of annual sales.

Summary

 

Confidence. You don't plunk down Big money for a part time home at the end of the road just for the heck of it.

 

Savvy buyers recognize the risk-reward profile of the US economy is favorable. The combination of condensing regulatory policies and the incentives of the 2017 TCJA are encouraging corporate investment and creating broad based wealth. 30 year mortgages have fallen from 4.95% in November 2018 to 4.09%  in March 2019. (Biggest Risk: Federal spending)

 

Florida is well positioned to optimize its multi-cultural population and has/is steadily moving away from specializing on a retirees and tourist based economy. SpaceTech, low taxes and improvements in Education, particularly K - 12, are placing Florida in the Top 3 states in the US.

 

As an Area of Critical Concern, Key West and Monroe County buck the expansionist trends of the rest of the state. (2017 is the latest Area of Critical Concern Report) For the Keys it's quality over quantity. This is best reflected in its stringent building codes, historic preservation and protection of marine resources.

 

On the down side, Key West continues to struggle with an inadequate supply of affordable housing plus the trending away from 12-month rentals toward short-term vacation rentals. Both these areas negatively affect workforce housing and there are scant legitimate solutions in sight.

Conclusion

 

On the chart, the red horizontal line shows 1st Quarter sales.  Note the 39 sales of Jan - March 2019 is the most since Jan - March 2015.

 

Meawhile, it's 77 degrees, blue skies and easy breezes. The Blue Angels were in town March 30/31! Fly Navy.


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Good luck!