Posted: Oct 03, 2018
Powerful Old Town Home Sales in September
Key West plus Sunset Key

Thirteen single family homes Sold in Old Town in September, trouncing the 5 year (2013 - 2017) average of seven sales. Year to date sales lag the 5 year average by 7% but year to date 2018 sales versus 2017 are up 12%. Quarterly home sales are accelerating. 1st Qtr 2018 sales lagged 1st Qtr 2017 by 13% but 2nd Qtr 2018 beat 2nd Qtr 2017 by 12% and 3rd Qtr 2018 beat 3rd Qtr 2017 by 46%!  On Prices, September's average sale price of $1.5M was highest for 2018 and 7th month in 2018 over $1M. The 3rd Qtr 2018 average sale price was over $1M for the 9th Qtr since 1st Qtr 2016 and beat 3rd Qtr 2017 by 29%. September's average sales price per square foot of $902 was the highest ever.

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The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2008 to September 30, 2018. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of 2018 mid-year sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, is here.

 

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Five, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2018. The average number of days to sell is 45 days.
  • There are three 1/1 homes for sale from $499K to $689K.
  • The 2018 average sale price of $508,000 is 5% less than the average sale price for 2017.
  • In 2015, twelve homes sold, the most since 2001. In 2016, 9 sold. In 2017 there were 4 sales.
  • The average size of the 2018 homes sold is 615 sq.ft., slightly below average; however, the average sale price per sqft. of $826 is only 4% below 2017.

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

 

  • Twenty, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2018.  The average number of days to sell is 79 days.
  • The average Sold price of $815,000 is up 46% from 2017 which at $557K was down 4% from 2016. The $801K is 145% above the 2011 low.
  • Nine 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $450K to $900K.
  • Sixteen 2/1's sold in 2016, eleven in 2017.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 177 sales.

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Twenty, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2018. The number of  Days to sell is 116 Days, 9% longer than 2017.
  • The average sold price of $941,000 is up 5% from 2017 and is 122% above the low in 2009.
  • Ten 2/2's are for sale, priced between $711,000 and $1.68M.
  • The average Sold price per sqft for 2018 is $853.  In 2017 the average was $704, in 2016 the average was $614.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 278 sales.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Twenty, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2018. The number of Days to sell is 129 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $1,1105,000 is up 9% from 2017 which was 2% below 2016 and is 140% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $694, up 3% from 2017.
  • Twenty-one 3/2's sold in 2015, fifteen in 2016 and twenty-seven in 2017.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town with 200 sales.

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Fifteen, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2018. The average number of Days to sell is 131 Days.
  • The average sold price of $1.513M is up 7% from 2017 which was 1% below 2016.
  • The average Sold price per sqft. of $838 is up 4% from 2017 and is the highest since 2005.
  • Nineteen homes sold in both 2015 and 2016 with twenty-two sales in 2017.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Seven, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2018.  Avrage number of days to sell is 86 days.  In 2017, the average number of Days to sell was 51 days.
  • The average home sold price thru September is $1.828M, up 23% over 2017. In 2017 the average sale price was $1.488M with the 5-year average sales price at $1.525M.
  • There are 8 homes for sale ranging in price from $1.01M to $3.75M.
  • Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an erratic up trend in average sale price since 2013.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Twelve, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2018. The average number of Days to sell is 128 days. Twelve sales is a record (going back to Jan 2012).
  • There are five 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.35M to $6.25M.
  • The 2018 average Sold price of $2.3M is up 9% from 2017 which was 1% below 2016.
  • The average sold price per sq.ft. of $835 is 10% above 2017.
  • Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with six in 2015, eight in 2016 and six in 2017.  Since 2015, price action has been steady, $2M - $2.3M, despite a limited and choppy number of annual sales.

Summary

 

Ninety single family homes are listed for sale in Old Town, average for the summer months. Two homes are under $500K, three homes are under $600K and six homes are under $700K. Ouch. First-time home Buyers are completely priced out.

 

Home sales have rotated away from three bedroom homes, dominators since 2013, to 2bed/1bath and 4bed/4bath homes.

 

Even if September 2017 (Hurricane Irma) had a normal sales result, September 2018 would have still beat sales handily.  So what's driving the Old Town market to record sales and prices this summer?

Conclusion

 

Confidence is King. 

 

The 1st Qtr 2018 began sluggishly.  Since spring 2018, Buyers have been bouyed by rising stock prices, rising salaries, lower taxes, more take home pay and the high likelihood of these conditions as a continuing trend.

 

Eighteen of the thirty-five homes Sold in the 3rd Qtr 2018 went for Cash with sale prices from $475K to $2.5M. This is well in keeping with the 5 year average of 53%.

 

The one fly in the ointment for Key West is, where are hourly workers going to live?  Many long time property owners and many new buyers are holding their homes either for sole use or for short-term, income producing rentals. Fewer long term rentals is driving rents higher and higher. Who in Key West will champion legitimately affordable housing for its work force?

 

Enjoy the rest of your summer.

 

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

 

Good luck.