Traditionally, January sales (closings) are few.  December is not a big month for contracts, so January usually has little to build on.  Since 2011, January has averaged 12 closings. January 2015 is no exception with only eleven sales in the Old Town area. On the up side, those home styles that were strong in 2014, larger 2bedoom/2bathroom and homes with three bedrooms, hit the year running with two sales each.  But, let's face it, 2014 was the 5th year in a row of rising sale prices.  Will 2015 continue the trend?

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2006 to January 31, 2015.

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a neighborhood map here. The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

Zero, 1Bed/1Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2015.  Conversely for all 2015 eleven homes sold, the most since 2010! Buyers are very choosey about buying small Old Town homes. The average size of the five for sale is 814 sq.ft., 31% larger than the 2010 - 2014 average. Yet, the average sale price of $636,000 is 70% higher, than the 2010 - 2014 average of $375,000.

Zero, 2Bed/1Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2015.  Fourteen 2/1's sold in 2014, the least amount since 2011.  The 2014 average Sold price of $468,000 was 13% more than in 2013. Nine 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $390K to $1.1M. Fifteen 2/1 homes sold in 2011, sixteen in 2012 and twenty-one in 2013 but only fourteen in 2014! Why? Overpriced. Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town.

Two, 2Bed/2Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2015. The average sale price of $625,000 is 16% below 2014 and 47% above the low in 2009. There are sixteen 2/2's for sale, priced between $499,000 and $1.15M. Average price per sqft of these sixteen is $595, 26% more than the five year average of $470 per sqft.  Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West.

Two, 3Bed/2Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2015. The average Sold price of $728,000 is 24% below 2014 which was 30% more than 2013 and is up 58% from the 2009 low. The average sold price per sqft. is $429. Twenty-one 3/2's sold in 2013 and twenty-sevn sold in 2014. The nine presently For Sale offer a wide range of price and matching quality. Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the second biggest sellers in Old Town Key West.

Two, 3Bed/3Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2015. The average Sold price of $1.15M is 6% less than 2014 which was 20% more than 2014. The average sold price per sqft. of $541 is 19% less than 2014 yet 4% above the 2009-2013 average. Twenty-seven 3/3's sold in 2012, the highest recorded, and twenty-six in 2013.  There are fifteen 3/3's For Sale from $645K to $3.85M. Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West.

Zero, 4Bed/3Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2015. The 2014 average Sold price of $1.723M was 59% more than the average Sold price for 2013. This Bed/Bath configuration has yet to solidly reverse price decline. HOWEVER. The twelve sales in 2012, the highest since 2008, and eleven sales in 2013, with a climbing average sales price per square foot, shows strength. There are ten 4/3's For Sale priced between $775K and $3.2M

Zero, 4Bed/4Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2015. The 2014 average Sold price of $1.577M was 4% above 2013, 13% above the 10-year average and 42% above the 2009 low. The average sold price per sqft of $606 was 6% above 2013 which was 47% more than 2012. Since 2003 the average number of annual sales is six, so nine sold for 2013 and 10 in 2014 were excellent. Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.

Conclusion

As I began, January is a slow month.  Since the bottom in 2009/2010 buyers have been very cautious, value buying primarily in the larger three bedroom homes. In many instances, sellers who bought during the 2004 - 2006 run up are now seeing the opportunity to cash out. 

Yet sale prices have not returned to pre-bubble levels.  If sellers ask for those pre-bubble levels, or more, then number of sales will stagnate, placing the five year run in rising prices and increasing number of sales in jeopardy.

It is imperative that Realtors stand fast on pricing, provide credible pricing strategies and market their listings aggressively.

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

Good luck and welcome to 2015!