Key West real estate prices hit their peak in 2005/2006. Then, Ka-Boom! Prices fell 50%, bottoming in 2009/2010. Since then EVERY home property type has rebounded. Some home types, especially the larger two and three bedroom homes are 75% to 108% off their bottom! Not only are average sale prices UP but number of sales too are UP. (What's this about tight inventory?) As long as number of sales increase then so too will prices. Who's buying? Boomers - with an eye for premium value as they reward themselves and their families for decades of hard work. Well done!
The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2014.
These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key. You can view a neighborhood map here. The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.
Eleven, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2014, the most since 2010! One is a genuine one-of-a-kind home surrounded by a 10,000 sqft tropical rain forest in the middle of Old Town; hence its sale price of $1.24M! Buyers are very choosey about buying small Old Town homes. The average size of the eleven 1/1's Sold is 570 sq.ft. with an average price per square foot of $779, well above the 2009 - 2013 average of $541.
Fourteen, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2014. The average Sold price of $468,000 is 13% more than in 2013. Price per sqft. of $543 is up 24% over 2013 which was 13% over 2012. Nine 2/1 homes are for sale with prices up to $799,000. Fifteen 2/1 homes sold in 2011, sixteen in 2012 and twenty-one in 2013 but only fourteen in 2014! Why? Overpriced. Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town.
Two bedroom/two bathroom homes sale prices are 75% above their 2010 low.
Thirty-one, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2014. The average sale price of $743,000 is 28% above 2013 and 75% above the low in 2009. There are fifteen 2/2's for sale, priced between $515,000 and $1.195M. Average price per sqft of these fifteen is $590, 32% more than the five year average of $470 per sqft. Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West.
Three bedroom/two bedroom homes sale prices are 108% above their 2009 low.
Twenty-seven, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2014. The average Sold price of $961,000 is 30% more than 2013 which was 25% more than 2012 and is up 108% from the 2009 low! The average sold price per sqft. is $563. Eighteen 3/2's sold in 2012 and twenty-one sold in 2013. The nine presently For Sale offer a wide range of price and matching quality. Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the second biggest sellers in Old Town Key West.
Three bedroom/three bathroom homes sale prices are 65% above their 2010 low.
Twenty-three, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2014. The average Sold price of $1.219M is 20% more than 2013 and is 65% above the 2010 low. The average sold price per sqft. of $665 is 24% more than 2013 and 49% above the 2009-2013 average. Twenty-seven 3/3's sold in 2012, the highest recorded, and twenty-six in 2013. There are sixteen 3/3's For Sale from $659K to $3.85M. Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West.
Four, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2014. The average Sold price of $1.723M is 59% more than the average Sold price for 2013. This Bed/Bath configuration has yet to solidly reverse price decline. HOWEVER. The twelve sales in 2012, the highest since 2008, and eleven sales in 2013, with a climbing average sales price per square foot, shows strength. There are eight 4/3's For Sale priced between $775K and $3.2M.
Ten, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2014. The average Sold price of $1.577M is 4% above 2013, 13% above the 10-year average and 42% above the 2009 low. The average sold price per sqft of $606 is 6% above 2013 which was 47% more than 2012. Since 2003 the average number of annual sales is six, so nine sold for 2013 was excellent. Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.
Conclusion
At 34 sales (the purple Line in the graph above), the 4th Quarter of 2014 had the lowest number of quarterly sales in 2014. Also, the average sales price of $896,000 (the purple Column) was the only price that was less than its respective quarter in 2013.
So the question is, as sales prices reach the pre-bubble level, will prices continue to new highs or will prices stall and pull back? Throughout 2014 I have seen sellers over reach and price their property TOO High and not sell. They lose. Conversely, sellers who align price and value have Sold. They win.
Greedy sellers and duplicious Realtors who price beyond value will see their properties stagnate, causing a slow down in number of sales which will cause a slow down in price appreciation.
Wise Realtors who are specialists in their neighborhoods will guide their sellers to a profitable sale through smart pricing and a marketing strategy based on cross selling.
If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.
Good luck and welcome to 2015!