As noted in my September and October reports, the 4th Qtr is the weakest quarter for home sales in Old Town. September sales were downed by Irma with October picking up those sales delayed.  Since 2012, November has averaged nine sales. November 2017 had only six. 2017 sales to date are 7% behind 2016 and 30% behind the peak year of 2015. December's 5-year average number of sales is ten. As of 1 Dec, there are two Pending and six Contingent.  November's average sales price remains high steady at $922,000 with an average sales price per square foot of $797. This puts the average sales price per sqft for Jan - Nov (114 sales) at $726.

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2017. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here and an analysis of 2017 mid-year sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, here.

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

• Four, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2017. The average number of days to sell is 99 days.
• There are two 1/1's for sale ranging from $549K to $1.595M.
• The 2017 average sale price of $534,000 is 7% above the average sale price for 2016.
• In 2014, eleven homes sold. In 2015, twelve homes sold, the most since 2001. In 2016, 9 sold.
• The average size of the 2017 homes sold is 623 sq.ft., slightly above average; however, the average sale price per sqft. is $857, 7% above 2016 and highest since 2005.

Have two bedroom homes priced themselves out of dominance?

• Ten, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2017.  The average number of days to sell is 159 days.
• The average Sold price of $565,000 is down 3% from 2016 which at $582K was unchanged from 2015.
• Five 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $575K to $1.395M.
• Twenty-three homes sold in 2015, sixteen in 2016.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 156 sales.

• Twenty-four, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2017. The average number of  Days to sell is 104 Days.
• The average sold price of $895,000 is up 30% from 2016 and is 111% above the low in 2009.
• Fifteen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $799,000 and $1.495M.
• The average Sold price per sqft for 2017 is $709.  In 2016 the average was $614.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 257 sales.

Three bedroom homes continue to dominate sales.

• Twenty-six, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2017. The average number of Days to sell is 147 Days.
• The average Sold price of $996,000 is down 4% from 2016 which was 11% above 2015 and is 113% above the 2009 low.
• The average sold price per sqft. is $661, down 5% from 2016.
• Twenty-seven 3/2's sold in 2014, twenty-one sold in 2015 but only fifteen in 2016.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town with 179 sales.

• Twenty-two, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2017. The average number of Days to sell is 83 Days.
• The average sold price of $1.420M is down 1% from 2016 which was 20% above 2015.
• The average Sold price per sqft. of $806 is up 9% from 2016 and is the highest since 2005.
• Twenty-three 3/3's sold in 2014, nineteen in 2015 and nineteen in 2016.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West.

No four bedroom homes have sold since July.

• Six, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2017. The average number of Days to sell is 51 days.
• The average sale price of $1.488M is 27% below 2016 with the 5-year average sales price of $1.525M.
• The average Sold price per sq.ft. is $813, down 4% from 2016 yet remains well above the 5-yr average of $638.
• Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an upward trend in average sale price since 2013.

• Six, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2017. Average number of Days to sell is 185 days.
• There are six 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.95M to $6.25M.
• The 2017 average Sold price is $2.103M, down 1% from 2016 which was 4% above the 2015.
• The 2017 average sold price per sq.ft. of $762 is 6% below 2016.
• Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with nine sold in 2013, ten in 2014, six in 2015 and eight in 2016.
• Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.

Summary

Unless December sees a big turnaround, only three bedroom homes will experience an increase in sales in 2017. I believe the answer resides in the shift of type of buyer of Old Town homes.

For years the typical buyer(s) was 62ish, a couple at or near retirement and granting themselves a reward for having plied the corporate pen and guiding kids through college and into early businesshood.  Key West was their new or at least predominant home.

Now it seems buyers are younger, aiming to transfer work to Key West before (if at all) they retire and the extra square feet and bedroom(s) accomodates a not yet established child or possible parent. Key West is in their portfolio, occasionally rented, an investment in a still fluid future.

Consequenty, 2017 buyers are very conscious of the financial demands of owning 33040. Future value and all that.  The goodwill of Key West remains intact; but, in the face of easy international travel, heightened experiential demands and (lets face it) long-term environmental concerns ($$$), Key West sellers might have to rethink those $700 - $900 cost per square foot sales prices to attract 2018 buyers whose feet remain free to roam.

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

Good luck!