​The 1st Qtr was sluggish, the 2nd Qtr boomed and the 3rd Qtr went on summer vacation.  The good news is sale prices are definitely steady-up from 2006 - 2010 with a continuation of 2011’s rebound.  Larger home sales also continue to dominate as Buyers recognize the value of going big in Old Town, a shift from the early 2000’s when sales of 2bed/1bath and 2bed/2bath dominated.  Cash maintains a strong position and well qualified borrowers are taking advantage of “free” money.  A strong supply remains in the wings for fall and winter.

The graphs here are for single family homes west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods the Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a neighborhood map here. The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends before, during after the real estate Bubble.

The data begins Jan 1, 2000 , runs through Sep 30, 2012 and continues the blogs of the 1st Qtr 2012 and 2nd Qtr 2012.

Only three 1bed/1bath homes have sold in Old Town this year, compared to 2004 - 2010 when the average number of sales was 9.  First time buyers are staying away from small expensive homes, preferring to rent or live home.

It should be noted that Days on the Market (DOM) is not entirely accurate as many homes have been on and off the market multiple times the past few years.  DOM is therefore only the number of days it took to sell THIS time.

Ten, 2bed/1bath homes have sold thru Sep 30, four in the 3rd Qtr. The average sale price of $342,000 is 3% above 2012's price and continues the basing begun in 2010. The average price per square foot of $367 is identical to 2011 and confirms market consolidation. Number of sales is off and will probably fall below the multi-year low of 15 set in 2011.

On the other hand

Twenty, 2bed/2bath homes have sold thru Sep 30, more than all of 2011. The average sales price of $616,000 and average price per square foot of $517 are both the highest since 2008. Twelve homes remain on the market with a reasonable price range of $356,000 to $775,000. If they all sold that would still be below the average of 37 sales per year during the peak from 2002 - 2005.

Historically, 2bed/2bath have been the #1 seller in Old Town averaging 27 sales per year since 2000 .  I'm expecting more will hit the market the 2012 - 2013 fall - winter season.

Eighteen, 3bed/2bath homes have sold in Old Town thru Sep 30, surpassing all of 2011. Seven sold in the 3rd Qtr. The average sale price of $553,000 and average price per square foot of $388 are both down nominally from 2011 but both 2010 and 2011 were up years so a short breather might be expected.

While 3bed/2bath homes are selling well; pricewise, they are selling at 50% their peak in 2005 & 2006.  The twenty homes on the market offer a very wide range of options, the high end completely polished, the lower end candidates for 203(k) lending. Historically, 3/2 homes have been the 2nd most popular seller averaging 19 sales per year since 2000. Easy money and value purchasing looks to keep them there.

Twenty-four, 3bed/3bath homes have sold in OldTown thru Sep 30, the highest recorded, nine in the 3rd Qtr alone. The average sale price of $887,000 is down only 2% from 2011. The graph shows clearly the rise and fall of prices as well as the high basing of prices since 2009. The average cost per square foot of $512 is the highest since 2008.

Nine, 4bed/3bath homes have sold in Old Town thru Sep 30, two in the 3rd Qtr.  The average sale price of $1.099M is 17% less than 2011 which was 4% less than 2010.  Price per square foot is $498, down 21 % from 2011. The fact that nine homes have sold is encouraging, the most since 2008.  There are three possible explanations for the drop in prices; market conditions, condition of home and that at an average of 2208 sq.ft., they are the second smallest 4/3's since tracking of sales began in 2000.

Four, 4bed/4bath homes have sold in Old Town thru Sep 30, two in the 3rd Qtr. Here too average sales price has fallen.  The average sale price of $895 is 32% less than 2011 with average price per square foot at $387, off 38% from 2011.  Again, market conditions and condition of home are major considerations. 

Key West remains a mix of one-of-a-kind homes and buyers looking for that perfect fit.  Clearly buyers have moved away from smaller 2 bedroom homes they can fix up, preferring larger 3 bedroom homes that for the most part are ready to go. 

Overall, Key West inventory is down 10%, some of this is due to summer off-season, some a reluctance from sellers not wanting to sell into weakness.

High end sellers remain reluctant to lower their prices, particularly those who bought in 2004 - 06.  It remains to be seen if buyers this fall and winter will step up in price range to capture pricier Old Town homes.

If you have any comments please feel free to contact me here.  Good luck.