Sales of single family homes in Old Town Key West in October rebounded strongly with ten sales. The ten sales were only the second time this year that the sales for a month beat the 5-year average for that month's sales. Overall, sales through October remain down; 7% less than 2016, 13% less than the 5-year average and 30% less than the peak year of 2015.  Also, it is unknown exacty how many sales were carryovers from September and Hurricane Irma. The good news is that there were carryovers.  Average sales price too was up considerably.  The average sales price of $1,343,000 was 3rd highest for the year.  Through October the average sales price per sqft is $718.  This figure is a hefty 55% over the 5-year average but only 3% above the Jan - Oct 2016 figure of $699.

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2017. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here and an analysis of 2017 mid-year sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, here.

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

1Bed 1Bath homes are selling at 174% of their 2011 low.

• Four, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2017. The average number of days to sell is 99 days.
• There are two 1/1's for sale ranging from $549K to $1.595M.
• The 2017 average sale price of $534,000 is 7% above the average sale price for 2016.
• In 2014, eleven homes sold. In 2015, twelve homes sold, the most since 2001. In 2016, 9 sold.
• The average size of the 2017 homes sold is 623 sq.ft., slightly above average; however, the average sale price per sqft. is $857, 7% above 2016 and highest since 2005.

• Seven, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2017.  The average number of days to sell is 178 days.
• The average Sold price of $561,000 is down 4% from 2016 which at $582K was unchanged from 2015.
• Fiv e2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $449K to $1.2M.
• Twenty-three homes sold in 2015, sixteen in 2016.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 153 sales.

2Bed 2Bath homes are selling at 111% over their 2009 low.

• Twenty-four, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2017. The average number of  Days to sell is 104 Days.
• The average sold price of $895,000 is up 30% from 2016 and is 111% above the low in 2009. 
• Fourteen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $619,000 and $1.495M.
• The average Sold price per sqft for 2017 is $709.  In 2016 the average was $614.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 257 sales.

3Bed 2Bath homes are selling at 113% over their 2009 low.

• Twenty-four, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2017. The average number of Days to sell is 148 Days.
• The average Sold price of $983,000 is down 5% from 2016 which was 11% above 2015 and is 113% above the 2009 low.
• The average sold price per sqft. is $652, down 6% from 2016.
• Twenty-seven 3/2's sold in 2014, twenty-one sold in 2015 but only fifteen in 2016.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town with 177 sales.

• Twenty-one, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2017. The average number of Days to sell is 83 Days.
• The average sold price of $1.416M is down 1% from 2016 which was 20% above 2015.
• The average Sold price per sqft. of $801 is up 9% from 2016 and is the highest since 2005.
• Twenty-three 3/3's sold in 2014, nineteen in 2015 and nineteen in 2016.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West.

• Six, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2017. The average number of Days to sell is 51 days.
• The average sale price of $1.488M is 27% below 2016 with the 5-year average sales price of $1.525M.
• The average Sold price per sq.ft. is $813, down 4% from 2016 yet remains well above the 5-yr average of $638.
• Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an upward trend in average sale price since 2013.

• Six, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2017. Average number of Days to sell is 185 days.
• There are six 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.95M to $6.25M.
• The 2017 average Sold price is $2.103M, down 1% from 2016 which was 4% above the 2015.
• The 2017 average sold price per sq.ft. of $762 is 6% below 2016.
• Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with nine sold in 2013, ten in 2014, six in 2015 and eight in 2016.
• Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.

Summary

I was fearing a soft October after a crappy September so the rebound in sales is welcome news.  Granted, the 5-year average of sales for September and October is 15 and this year there were just 13 sales in the two months, but 10 sales in October is a positive sign of faith in the long term validity of home sales in Old Town.  Three forces continue to impact sales of homes in Old Town:

1.  Price:  2017 is very likely going to be a down year in number of sales.  Even though many market forces at the national level are showing growing national confidence and economic strength, listing and sale prices in Old Town are at multi-year highs.  Such a level can cause buyers to ask if the 33040 zip code is truly worth the mark-up - the goodwill.

2.  Taxes:  Probable changes in real estate as prescribed in the GOP tax overhaul might affect negatively the purchase of second homes - regardless of location.

3.  Motivation:  Ultimately, sellers and buyers of Key West real estate, especially in the Old Town area, are doing so on an almost exclusively volunteer basis (as opposed to job relocations). In order for an owner to "move on", they must want to do so. And in doing so must get the price they want. Resolving the conflict between sales price and motivation can be a real tug-of-war.

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

Good luck!