Posted: Jun 02, 2023
Old Town Key West May Home Sales Fall by Half
Looe Key

Nine single family homes sold in the Old Town area of Key West in May, exactly 50% of the 5-year (2018-2022) average of homes sold (18) for the month of May.  Through May, 52 homes have sold which is down 34% from the 5-year average for January - May sales of 78. In 2020, Jan - May sales were 52. In 2021, Jan - May sales were 136.  In 2022, Jan - May sales were 95. On Prices, May's average sold price of $1.95M was the first month in 2023 less than $2M.  May's average sold price per square feet of $1109 was the lowest this year and brought the average sold price per sqft for the year to $1261.

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The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2014 to May 31, 2023. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of the number of sales and sale prices for each of these six neighborhoods for all of 2022 is here.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Five,1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2023. Average days on market was 30 days. Eight homes sold in 2022 at an average number of days to sell of 60 days.
  • The average Sold price for these five sales is $795K which is down 31% from 2022 yet 308% above the 2011 low. In 2022, the average sale price for the 8 sales was of $1.16M, highest ever.
  • There are Zero 1/1's for sale.
  • The 2023 sales have an average size of 607 sqft at $1309 per sqft.  In 2022, the average size was 789 sq.ft. and the average sale price per sqft. of $1471 was highest ever.

 

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Three, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2023 in an average of 66 days to sell.  In 2022, fourteen homes sold at an average of 42 days to sell.
  • The 2023 average sold price of $1.465M is up 52% over 2022 and 341% above the 2011 low.
  • The sold price per square foot in 2023 of $1021 is up 33% over 2022 which was 21% above 2021.
  • There are six 2/1 homes for sale priced between $899K and $1.5M.
  • Eighteen 2/1 homes sold in 2021, eight in 2020.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 246 sales.

 

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Eight, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2023 with an average of 51 days on market. In 2022, thirty-seven homes sold at an average of 45 days to sell.
  • The 2023 average Sold price of $1.85M is up 38% over 2022 and 336% above the low in 2009.
  • Eight 2/2's are for sale, priced between $599K and $3.6M.
  • The 2023 average Sold price per sqft of $1293 is up 27% over 2022.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 437 sold.

 

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Ten, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2023. The average number of Days to sell is 88 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $1.616M is down 5% from 2022 and is 251% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $1474, down 4% from 2022.
  • Twenty-seven 3/2 homes sold in 2022, 3rd most ever.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town, exceeding twenty sales every year since 2013 except in 2016. Total sales since 2009 is 343 sales.

 

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Six, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2023 at an average of 104 Days to sell. In 2022, 18 homes sold at an average of 40 Days, fastest ever.
  • The 2023 average sold price of $2.4M is up 5% from 2022 and 227% above the 2010 low.
  • The average Sold price per sqft. of $1564 is up 28% over 2022.
  • Forty-one homes sold in 2021, nineteen homes sold in 2020.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West with 283 sales.

 

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Three, 4bed/3bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2023 at an average of 11 Days to sell. In 2022, 13 homes sold at an average of 66 days to sell.
  • The 2023 average sold price of $2.99M is down 16% from 2022 and is 254% above the 2009 low.
  • The 2023 average sales price per sq.ft. of $2109, highest ever, is up 49% over 2022.
  • There are six 4/3 homes for sale priced between $1.95M and $3.8M.

 

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Five, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2023 at an average of 43 days to sell. In 2022, nine homes sold at an average 49 days.
  • The 2023 average sold price of $3.03M is down 8% from 2022 and is up 172% over the 2009 low.
  • The 2023 average sold price per sq.ft. of $1027 is down 20% from 2022.
  • Since 2003, the average number of annual sales is six, with nine in 2022, eighteen in 2021 and two in 2020.
  • Despite the choppy number of sales, price action has steadily climbed from $2.M in 2015 to $3.3M in 2022.

 

Conclusion

 

Inventory remains steady for post-Covid at 68 homes for sale. There are 13 Contingents and 1 Pending contract which are not enough to sustain the 5-year average of sales going foward which is 13 sales in June and 14 in July.

 

Prices remain elevated for sure and much of the highly positive attributes about Key West living remain unchallenged; near zero community angst, tension or crime, clean air and water, excellent air transportation to/from Key West International Airport (EYW) and easy transportation around the island plus a growing list of positive options for enhanced secondary and post-secondary education but there is a mature and too-long neglected troop of Gorillas on the loose:

 

  • Workforce housing affordability is beyond the crisis level.
  • Key West's economy is a shallow, one-trick pony that is highly vulnerable to any slowdown in tourism.
  • Key West remains tethered to its fresh water source which is 130 miles away and has no plans going forward other than to repair, re-pipe and maintain this 75 year old status quo.
  • Keys building codes mirror those of South Florida and are the toughest in the nation but if your home was built between 1900 and 2000, what then if Ian or Irma come calling.
  • Imposed, uncompetitive wind and flood insurance premiums are forcing many who own their home outright to move or roll the dice and "self insure".

 

This leaves Key West with a thining workforce, vulnerable to economic and meteorological forces outside of its control and a property ownership structure that is over 60% out-of-towners who are not directly impacted by these gorillas in our midst.

 

What to do?  Stay tuned.

 

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

 

Good luck.

 

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