Single family home sales in Old Town Key West Jan - May 2016 were 35% fewer than the same (record) period of 2105 and were 14% fewer than the 2011 - 2015, 5-year average.  Nine homes sold in May, the lowest May sales figure since seven sold in May 2011. Conversely, sale prices were up. Average sale prices per square foot were up 28% over Jan - May 2015 and were up 59% over the 2011 - 2015, 5-year average.  Two bed/one bath and three bed/three bath homes are selling in half the time as 2015.  The nine May sales averaged a record $853 per square foot. Of note, the two biggest sellers historically, 2bed/2bath and 3bed/2bath showed the weakest price action and are taking longer to sell.

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2006 to May 31, 2016.

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a neighborhood map here. The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

• Two, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2016.
• The 2016 average sale price of $538,000 is 12% above the average sale price for 2015.
• In 2015, twelve 1/1 homes sold, the most since 2001.
• The average size of the 2016 Solds is 663 sq.ft., equal to 2015; however,
• The average sale price per sqft. is a remarkable $812.  This figure is 14% higher than 2015 and highest since 2005.

• Ten, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2016.
• Average Sold price of $592,000 is 2% more than 2015 which was 25% more than 2014.
• Twelve 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $365K to $1.45M.
• Fifteen 2/1 homes sold in 2011, sixteen in 2012 and twenty-one in 2013 but only fourteen in 2014 so twenty-three sales for 2015 was very encouraging.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town.

• Eleven, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2016.
• The average sold price of $605,000 is 21% below 2015 and only 42% above the low in 2009.
• Sixteen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $469,000 and $2.995M.
• Average Sold price per sqft in 2016 is $518, 21% below 2015 which was 15% more than 2014.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 218 sales.

Three bedroom/two bathroom homes are selling at 97% above their 2009 low.

• Eight, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2016.
• The average Sold price of $909,000 is 2% below 2015, which was 3% below 2014, and is 97% above the 2009 low.
• Average sold price per sqft. is $681, up 14% from 2015, primarily because the eight homes sold are the smallest 3/2 homes sold since 2005.
• Twenty-seven 3/2's sold in 2014 and twenty-one sold in 2015.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the second biggest sellers in Old Town Key West as value buyers took advantage of comparatively large homes at low prices.

The average sold price for a three bedroom/three bathroom home equals $777 per square foot.

• Nine, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2016.
• The average sold price of $1.335M is 11% above 2015 and 84% above the 2010 low.
• The average size of the nine sold is 1743 sq.ft., the smallest since 2010; yet, the average Sold price per sqft. of $777 is the highest since 2008.
• Twenty-three 3/3's sold in 2014 and nineteen in 2015.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West.

• Five, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2016.
• The 2016 average sale price of $2.404M is 55% above 2015 which was 10% below the 2014 average sold price. $2.404M is 184% above the 2009 low.
• Average Sold price per sq.ft. is $1015, 46% above 2015 and the highest since 2005.
• This Bed/Bath configuration has finally solidified its price reversal. Plus, the twelve sales in 2012, the highest since 2008, and seven sales in 2015, with a climbing average sales price per square foot, shows strength.

• Four, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 5/31/2016.
• The average Sold price of $2.395M is 14% above the 2015 average Sold price which was 30% above 2014 and in the highest recorded.  The $2.395M is 115% above the 2009 low.
• The 2016 average sold price per sq.ft. of $858 is 14% above the 2015 average sold price per sqft which was 24% above 2014.
• Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with nine sold in 2013, ten in 2014 and six in 2015.
• Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.

Summary

As of June 1, 2016, there are thirteen Contingent and ten Pending single family home sales in the Old Town area. Assuming a failed contract or two, this will probably yield seven sales per month thru August.  Toss in a couple possible quick cash sales and that figure could rise from seven to nine sales per month.  The 5-year average number of sales per month for June, July and August are eleven, twelve and eleven.

And so, now in its ninth month, number of sales continue to lag historic figures. 

If you believe that number of sales directs sales prices, then falling number of sales, as we are seeing now, will pull down sales prices. Right now number of sales and sales prices are diverging. Will sales prices fall to a range where both sales and sales prices can return to a state where they move in tandem.  

Actually, the question is not will - for they certainly must. The question is when?

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

Good luck!