Posted: Oct 03, 2022
Old Town Key West home sales 3rd Qtr 2022 slump, prices steady.

Nineteen single family homes sold in the 3rd Qtr 2022, the lowest for any Quarter since 4th Qtr 2016.  Regardless, YTD home sales remain 4% above the 5-year average (2017-2021) for Jan-Sept, 34% above sales for Jan-Sept 2020 and 11% above sales for Jan-Sept 2019. Inventory continues 60% below average. On Prices, the average sales price for 3rd Qtr 2022 was the second highest ever at $1.93M (highest was 2nd Qtr 2022) and is up 10% from 3rd Qtr 2021.  The average sales price per square feet YTD of $1198 is 48% above the 5-year average and is up 25% since January 1st.

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The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2013 to September 30, 2022. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of the number of sales and sale prices for each of these six neighborhoods for the 1st Half of 2022 is here.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Eight, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2022. The average number of days to sell is 60 days.
  • The 2022 average sale price of $1.160M is the highest ever, up 86% over 2021 and is 495% above the 2011 low.
  • Eight homes sold in 2021, ten homes in 2020.
  • The average size of the 2022 homes sold is 789 sq.ft., well above average.
  • The average sale price per sqft. of $1471 is up 36% over 2021 and is the highest ever

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Twelve, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2022 at an average of 46 days to sell.
  • The 2022 average sold price is $967K is the highest ever, up 17% over 2021 and 191% above the 2011 low.
  • The sold price per square foot in 2022 of $1050 is up 24% over 2021 and is the highest ever for a 2/1.
  • There are zero 2/1 homes for sale.
  • Eighteen 2/1 homes sold in 2021, eight in 2020.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 241 sales

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Thirty-four, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2022. The average number of Days to sell is 41 Days. 43 homes sold in 2021 at an average of 58 Days.
  • The 2022 average sold price of $1.336M is up 12% over 2021 and is 214% above the low in 2009.
  • Two 2/2's are for sale, priced between $1.3M and $1.5M.
  • The 2022 average Sold price per sqft is $1143, up 18% over 2021.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 426 sold.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Twenty-five, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2022. The average number of Days to sell is 31 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $1.74M is the highest ever, up 29% over 2021 and is 278% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $1147, up 23% over 2021.
  • Forty-five 3/2 homes sold in 2021, the most ever.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town, exceeding twenty sales every year since 2013 except in 2016. Total sales since 2009 is 331 sales.

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Sixteen, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2022. The average number of Days to sell is 38, quickest ever. In 2021, 41 homes sold, the most ever, at an average of 96 Days.
  • The 2022 sold price of $2.31M is the highest ever, up 29% over 2021 and is 213% above the 2010 low.T
  • The average Sold price per sqft. of $1223 is up 22% over 2021.
  • Forty-one homes sold in 2021, nineteen homes sold in 2020.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West with 275 sales

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Eleven, 4bed/3bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2022 at an average of 66 Days to sell. In 2021, 14 homes sold at an average number of days to sell of 95 Days.
  • The 2022 average sold price is $3.59M is the highest ever, up 51% over 2021 which was 49% above 2020 and is 326% above the 2009 low.
  • The 2022 average sales price per sqft of $1442 is up 43% over 2021 and is the highest ever.
  • There are two 4/3 homes for sale at $2.45 and $3.25M.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Seven, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2022. Average number of Days to sell is 48 Days. In 2021, 18 homes sold, the most 4/4's solds EVER.
  • The 2022 sold price of $3.21M is the highest ever, up 32% over 2021 and is up 188% over the 2009 low.
  • The 2022 sold price per sq.ft. of $1250 is the highest ever, up 31% over 2021.
  • Since 2003, the average number of annual sales is six, with eighteen in 2021, two in 2020 and five in 2019.
  • Despite the choppy number of sales, price action between 2018 - 2012 has been steady between $2.4M - $2.5M.

Conclusion

 

Buyers are keeping their cards close to their vest, waiting for clarity on economic conditions.  Fed policy looks fairly clear with two .75 rate increases remaining in 2022. Less clear are mid-term elections. Clearing the election hurdle should provide buyers and the stock markets with less uncertainty. This is especially applicable for Cash Buyers as they retain the upper hand in sales with 58% of single family home sales YTD, a record. Even though September had only five sales, four were in Cash.

 

In 2017, Key West dodged Hurricane Irma, 40 miles east, and recent Hurricane Ian was 60 miles west.  Old Town had very little structural damage from either, most damage was due to debris from untrimmed trees and the south side along the Gulf saw some water intrusion - as it always does.

 

No matter where or what you buy or whether you will self insure or not; always be mindful of Flood Zone, age and composition of roof, building code, trees and surrounding structures for wind protection. 

 

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

 

Good luck.