Posted: Jan 02, 2023
Old Town Key West End of Year 2022 Sales Report

Year 2022 was a tale of two very different halves. 1st Half sales were 21% above the 5-year (2017 - 2021) average with each month's sales in double digits, rising average sale prices and rising average sales price per square feet. 2nd Half 2022 sales were 42% below the 5-year average with single digit sales for each month, flat average sales price and declining average sales price per sqft. Total 2nd Half sales (35) were the fewest in 15 years. In 2022 there were 145 sales.  In 2021 there were 234 sales, in 2020 there were142 sales, in 2019 there were 144 sales.  Average sales price for 2022 was $1.71M, in 2021 it was $1.74M, in 2020 and 2019 it was $1.28M. Average sale price per sqft for a single family home sold in Old Town Key West in 2022 was $1169, highest ever and up 22% over 2021.

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The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2022. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of the number of sales and sale prices for each of these six neighborhoods for all of 2022 is here.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Eight, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2022. The average number of days to sell is 60 days.
  • The 2022 average sale price of $1.16M is the highest ever, up 86% over 2021 and is 495% above the 2011 low.
  • Eight 1/1 homes sold in 2021, ten homes in 2020.
  • The average size of the 2022 homes sold is 789 sq.ft., well above average.
  • The average sale price per sqft. of $1471 is up 36% over 2021 and is the highest ever

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Fourteen, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2022 at an average of 42 days to sell.
  • The 2022 average sold price is $966K is up 16% over 2021 and 191% above the 2011 low.
  • The sold price per square foot in 2022 of $1079 is up 27% over 2021 and is the highest ever for a 2/1.
  • There are six 2/1 homes for sale priced between $995K and $1.45M.
  • Eighteen 2/1 homes sold in 2021, eight in 2020.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 243 sales.

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Thirty-seven, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2022. The average number of Days to sell is 45 Days. 43 homes sold in 2021 at an average of 58 Days.
  • The 2022 average sold price of $1.34M is up 12% over 2021 and is 215% above the low in 2009.
  • Three 2/2's are for sale, priced between $1.3M and $1.9M.
  • The 2022 average Sold price per sqft is $1103, up 14% over 2021.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 429 sold.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Twenty-seven, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2022. The average number of Days to sell is 35 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $1.7M is up 26% over 2021 and is 269% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $1145, up 23% over 2021.
  • Forty-five 3/2 homes sold in 2021, the most ever.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town, exceeding twenty sales every year since 2013 except in 2016. Total sales since 2009 is 333 sales.

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Eighteen, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2022. The average number of Days to sell is 40. In 2021, 41 homes sold, the most ever, at an average of 96 Days.
  • The 2022 average sold price of $2.29M is up 28% over 2021 and is 210% above the 2010 low.
  • The average Sold price per sqft. of $1223 is up 22% over 2021.
  • Forty-one homes sold in 2021, nineteen homes sold in 2020.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West with 277 sales

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Thirteen, 4bed/3bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2022 at an average of 66 Days to sell. In 2021, 14 homes sold at an average number of days to sell of 95 Days.
  • The 2022 average sold price of $3.56M is the highest ever, up 49% over 2021 which was 49% above 2020 and is 321% above the 2009 low.
  • The 2022 average sales price per sqft of $1418 is up 41% over 2021.
  • There are five 4/3 homes for sale between $2.4 and $3.9M

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Nine, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 12/31/2022. Average number of Days to sell is 49 Days. In 2021, 18 homes sold, the most 4/4's solds EVER.
  • The 2022 sold price of $3.31M is the highest ever, up 36% over 2021 and is up 197% over the 2009 low.
  • The 2022 sold price per sq.ft. of $1291 is the highest ever, up 35% over 2021.
  • Since 2003, the average number of annual sales is six, with eighteen in 2021, two in 2020 and five in 2019.
  • Despite the choppy number of sales, price action between 2018 - 2012 has been steady between $2.4M - $2.5M.

Summary

 

Two pieces of Good news. 

 

Inventory has been rising since October with the number of single family homes on the market For Sale now at 56.  While this is well below the usual number of 110 +/- for a typical January, it is well above the 27 - 32 homes listed in the MLS for sale for most of 2022. 

 

Second.  Cash sales were steady throughout 2022, occured throughout the price spectrum and finished the year at 59% of all sales - a Record.

 

The not so good news. 

 

Of the 56 homes listed For Sale in the MLS; 21 are below $2M (two under $1M) and 35 homes are priced over $2M.

Conclusion

 

In June 2022, the City of Key West announced a proposed change to the short term rental policy for those who wished to rent their property on a vacation or monthly rental basis. The proposal is to increase the minimum rental period to 180 days from 30 days.  The negative impact on sales was immediate as sales for July - December fell significantly. 

 

The historic 1st Half/2nd Half sales percentage split for homes sold in Old Town Key West is 60/40.  In 2022 that split was 76/24.

 

Following four postponements, the City Commission discussed the monthly rental proposal on January 4 at City Hall.  (Commission meeting Agenda and Minutes).

 

As I have noted before, the profile of the typical Buyer of Old Town property is a pre-retirement investor who is inserting an Old Town property into their investment portfolio.  As such, deriving some nominal income from the property is a key element to buying in Old Town Key West. Reducing the income opportunity shrinks the Buyer pool, reduces the desireability of expensive Old Town property and has a significant negative impact on the scores of small, locally owned businesses associated with the short term rental industry.

 

If you have any comments or questions please contact me here.

 

Good luck and Welcome to 2023!