Due to below average sales in July and August, 3rd Quarter home sales for Old Town were likely enroute to a multi-year low - Irma sealed that fate. The three home sales in September are the fewest number of sales in a single month since January 2013. (The 5 year average for home sales in September is seven). The twenty-four 3rd Qtr sales are the fewest since 3rd Qtr 2012. Year to date 2017 sales of 98 sales are 10% behind the 5 Year average, 13% behind 2016 and 33% behind the peak sales year of 2015. However, average sales prices continue to hold on tight. Thru September, the average sales price per square feet is $710.  This figure is only 1% below January - September 2016 and is only 3% below the 5 Yr January - September amount.  Additionally, the average sales price for the 3rd Qtr of $959,000 was the first Quarter since January - March 2016 to be below $1M.

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2017. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here and an analysis of 2017 mid-year sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, here.

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

1Bed/1Bath homes are selling at 174% of the 2011 low.

• Four, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2017. The average number of days to sell is 99 days.
• There are two 1/1's for sale ranging from $549K to $1.595M.
• The 2017 average sale price of $534,000 is 7% above the average sale price for 2016.
• In 2014, eleven homes sold. In 2015, twelve homes sold, the most since 2001. In 2016, 9 sold.
• The average size of the 2017 homes sold is 623 sq.ft., slightly above average; however, the average sale price per sqft. is $857, 7% above 2016 and highest since 2005.

• Six, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2017.  The average number of days to sell is 200 days.
• The average Sold price of $560,000 is down 4% from 2016 which at $582K was unchanged from 2015.
• Eight 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $449K to $1.2M.
• Twenty-three homes sold in 2015, sixteen in 2016.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 152 sales.

2Bed/2Bath homes are selling at 109% of the 2009 low.

• Twenty-two, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2017. The average number of  Days to sell is 95 Days.
• The average sold price of $887,000 is up 29% from 2016 and is 104% above the low in 2009.   
• Eleven 2/2's are for sale, priced between $799,000 and $1.4M.
• The average Sold price per sqft for 2017 is $715.  In 2016 the average was $614.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 255 sales.

3Bed/2Bath homes are selling at 103% of the 2009 low.

• Twenty-one, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2017. The average number of Days to sell is 145 Days.
• The average Sold price of $935,000 is down 10% from 2016 which was 11% above 2015 and is 103% above the 2009 low.
• The average sold price per sqft. is $649, down 7% from 2016.
• Twenty-seven 3/2's sold in 2014, twenty-one sold in 2015 but only fifteen in 2016.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town with 174 sales.

• Nineteen, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2017. The average number of Days to sell is 79 Days.
• The average sold price of $1.393M is down 2% from 2016 which was 20% above 2015.
• The average Sold price per sqft. of $794 is up 8% from 2016 and is the highest since 2005.
• Twenty-three 3/3's sold in 2014, nineteen in 2015 and nineteen in 2016.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West.

• Six, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2017. The average number of Days to sell is 51 days.
• The average sale price of $1.488M is 27% below 2016 with the 5-year average sales price of $1.525M.
• The average Sold price per sq.ft. is $813, down 4% from 2016 and is well above the 5-yr average of $638.
• Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an upward trend in average sale price since 2013.

• Six, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2017. Average number of Days to sell is 185 days.
• There are six 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.95M to $6.25M.
• The 2017 average Sold price is $2.103M, down 1% from 2016 which was 4% above the 2015.
• The 2017 average sold price per sq.ft. of $762 is 6% below 2016.
• Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with nine sold in 2013, ten in 2014, six in 2015 and eight in 2016.
• Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.

Summary

Over the past 5 years, the months of September, October and November have had the weakest average number of sales and of these, September, at 7 average sales per month, is the weakest. Irma, and the obligation to have insurance in place for a sale to occur, not too mention of the storm's turmoil, made sure of September's poor performance.

However, the trend of fewer number of sales for 2017 has been in place for two years (2015 tops with 171 sales, then 2016 with 129 sales and 98 so far in 2017).

Nationwide, the number of sales of vacation homes, a key component of the Key West real estate market, is down measurably.  Conversely, prices for companies like Home Depot, Lowe's, PGTI, Jen-Weld and Restoration Hardware are up as home owners spruce up primary residences or vacation properties already owned - just look at the perpetual renovation in Key West as an example.

Old Town sales prices remain strong. 

The 3rd Qtr average sales price was the seventh in a row over $950,000. September's average sales price per square foot of $596 was the first month since October 2016 to be less than $600 and the year to date average sales price per square foot of $710 is a solid 20% over the 5 year average.

Truly, money talks.  As number of sales falter (there are only 8 Pending or Contingent properties in the pipeline) will sellers and their agents listen?

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

Good luck!