The good news is March's fourteen sales topped the sum of sales for January and February (13).  The not so good news is, like January and February, these fourteen sales were short of the 5-year average for the month resulting in a 1st Qtr total sales (27) that trails the 1st Qtr 2017 by 13%, 1st Qtr 2016 by 21% and 1st Qtr 2015 by 47%! On the price side, the 1st Qtr 2018 average sale price of $1,109,000 was the fourth quarter of the last five and seventh of the last nine to top $1M. Also, the 1st Qtr 2018 average sales price per square feet value of $750 tops the same period of 2017 by 9%, 2016 by 18% and 2015 by 26%. 

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2008 to March 31, 2018. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here and an analysis of 2017 end-of-year sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, here.

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

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1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

• Two, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2018. The average number of days to sell is 80 days.
• There are two 1/1 homes for sale at $599K and $1.595M.
• The 2018 average sale price of $503,000 is 6% below the average sale price for 2017.
• In 2015, twelve homes sold, the most since 2001. In 2016, 9 sold. In 2017 there were 4 sales.
• The average size of the 2018 homes sold is 648 sq.ft., about average; however, the average sale price per sqft. of $775 is 10% below 2017.

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

• Five, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2018.  The average number of days to sell is 161 days.
• The average Sold price of $786,000 is up 41% from 2017 which at $557K was down 4% from 2016.
• Nine 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $575K to $1.2M.
• Sixteen 2/1's sold in 2016, eleven in 2017.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 162 sales.

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom - 5 Sales in March

• Seven, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2018. The number of  Days to sell is 100 Days. In 2017 the average was 106 days.
• The average sold price of $935,000 is up 4% from 2017 and is 120% above the low in 2009.
• Twenty 2/2's are for sale, priced between $599,000 and $1.68M.
• The average Sold price per sqft for 2018 is $936.  In 2017 the average was $704, in 2016 the average was $614.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 265 sales.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

• Three, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2018. The number of Days to sell is 219 Days.
• The average Sold price of $1,041,000 is up 3% from 2017 which was 2% below 2016 and is 126% above the 2009 low.
• The average sold price per sqft. is $681, up 1% over 2017.
• Twenty-one 3/2's sold in 2015, fifteen in 2016 and twenty-seven in 2017.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town with 183 sales.

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

• Four, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2018. The average number of Days to sell is 266 Days.
• The average sold price of $1.329M is down 6% from 2017 which was 1% below 2016.
• The average Sold price per sqft. of $736 is down 9% from 2017.  2017's $806 was the highest since 2005.
• Nineteen homes sold in 2015 and 2016 with twenty-two sales in 2017.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

• Zero, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2018.  In 2017, the average number of Days to sell was 51 days.
• The 2017 average sale price of $1.488M was 27% below 2016 with the 5-year average sales price of $1.525M.
• There are 14 homes for sale ranging in price from $1.1M to $3.57M.
• Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an upward trend in average sale price since 2013.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

• Three, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2018. The average number of Days to sell is 205 days.
• There are eleven 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.29M to $6.2M.
• The average Sold price of $2.6M is up 24% from 2017 which was 1% below 2016.
• The average sold price per sq.ft. of $771 is 1% above 2017.
• Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with six in 2015, eight in 2016 and six in 2017.
• Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.

Conclusion - Diverging trend lines

Over the past five years (2013 - 2017), the number of sales in the 1st Quarter has averaged 27% of sales for the entire year. (1st Qtr 27%, 2nd Qtr 33%, 3rd Qtr 23%, 4th Qtr 17%).  If the 27 sales in the 1st Qtr 2018 holds true to this trend then the total sales for 2018 could be as low as 100!  That would equal 20% fewer sales than 2017!

How much longer can the trends lines of number of sales and average sale prices move apart?!

Generally, there appear to be two options to remedy this divergence:

1. Lower sales prices would expand the number of qualified buyers
2. A better residential living environment could justify the high sale prices

Both of these options would bring Value to a maturing market where Growth appears limited.

Option 1 would require Sellers and their partner Realtors to lower their sights on profit - highly unlikely.

Option 2 would require the City leaders to focus less on tourism-at-all-costs and invest in issues enhancing Residential Quality of Life.  The well deserved success of the Monroe County Tourist Development Council can not be overstated.  Why not a Residential Development Council?

Who are the Buyers of Key West residential real estate and what do they want?  A laundry list might include:

1. More reliable internet and cable services
2. More reliable and increased locally generated electrical services
3. A broader array of life-long medical services
4. Safer, cleaner roads, parking and public transportation services
5. Fewer regulatory factors that hyper-drive up the cost of home improvement
6. Realistic flood and windstorm insurance rates (Why am I paying out the butt to improve the structural integrity of my home but not seeing a concomittant drop in insurance rates?)
7. What if the Key West Brand meant something other than Duval St. and fishing?
8. What would you wish for?

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

Good luck!