Posted: Dec 02, 2020
Old Town Home Sales in November Stay Hot
Sapodilla Villa

Eleven homes sold in Old Town in November, beating the 5-year (2015-2019) average of 8 sales and bringing the YTD total of sales in Old Town to 122 sales. These 122 sales are only 8% behind the Jan-Nov 5-year average of 132 sales. In August, total sales were 32% behind! As a reference, full year sales in 2016 were 129, in 2017/121, in 2018/137 and in 2019/144. On Prices, November's average sold price of $1.577M and average sold price per square feet of $907 were both the second highest for the year. The YTD average sold price per sqft is $767, down 8% from end of 2019 but 12% above the 5-year average.

____________________________________________________________________________________

 

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2011 to November 30, 2020. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of 1st Half 2020 sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, is here.

 

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Nine, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2020. The average number of days to sell is 90 days.
  • There are two 1/1 homes for sale at $608K and $699K.
  • The 2020 average sale price of $512,000 is 8% less than the average sale price for 2019 and 163% above the 2011 low.
  • In 2015, twelve homes sold and nine in 2016 and 2019, otherwise sales have been weak.
  • The average size of the 2020 homes sold is 642 sq.ft., about average. The average sale price per sqft. of $798 is 11% below 2019.

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Seven, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2020.  The average number of days to sell is 87 days.
  • The 2020 average Sold price of $633,000 is 13% above 2019 which at $560K was down 29% from 2018. The $633K is 91% above the 2011 low.
  • Four 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $749K to $949K.
  • Twenty-five homes sold in 2018 and twenty-one in 2019.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 210 sales

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Twenty-four, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2020. The average number of  Days to sell is 125 Days.
  • The average sold price of $911,000 is 2% higher than 2019, is the highest average sold price since 2006 and is 114% above the low in 2009.
  • Eleven 2/2's are for sale, priced between $599K and $1.439M.
  • The 2020 average Sold price per sqft is $774, up 7% over 2019.  In 2019 the average was $724, in 2018 the average was $747.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 345 sales.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Twenty-six, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2020. The average number of Days to sell is 120 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $1,121,000 is down 11% from 2019 and is 143% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $739, down 5% from 2019.
  • Twenty-seven homes sold in 2017, twenty-five in 2018 and twenty-six in 2019.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town, exceeding twenty sales every year since 2013 except 2016. Total sales since 2009 is 257 sales

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Fourteen, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2020. The average number of Days to sell is 121 Days.
  • The 2020 average sold price of $1.512M is 10% above 2019 which was 11% below 2018. $1.387M is 105% above the 2010 low.
  • The average Sold price per sqft. of $873 is up 14% from 2019 and is the highest recorded for 3/3 homes.
  • Seventeen homes sold in 2018 and twenty-six in 2019.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West with 213 sales.

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Sixteen, 4bed/3bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2020. The average number of days to sell is 112 days.
  • The average sold price of $1.603M, is down 18% from 2019 and is 90% above the 2009 low.
  • More 4/3's have sold thru November than 2019 and 2018 combined. Sixteen solds equals the highest annual total ever which occured in 2008!
  • The average sales price per sqft is $732, down 21% from 2019.
  • There are nine homes for sale, ranging in price from $1.439M to $3.3995M.
  • Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an erratic up trend in average sale price since 2013.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Three, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2020. Average number of Days to sell is 37 days. Five homes sold in 2019 at an average days on market of 52 days.
  • There are ten 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.99M to $3.9M.
  • The 2020 average sold price of $2.391M is down 2% from 2019, which was unchanged from 2018, and is up 115% since the 2009 low.
  • The 2020 average sold price per sq.ft. of $894 is down 20% from 2019.
  • Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with six in 2017, fourteen in 2018 and five in 2019.  Despite the choppy number of sales, price action has been steady, $2M - $2.4M.

Summary

 

Each of September, October (a record month) and now November have easily beat the 5-year average of sales for that month in Old Town.  As of 1 December, there are 30 Contingent and 4 Pending For Sale contracts in place.  The year will end on a surge.

 

YTD cash sales are down slightly to 48% but not because there are fewer cash buyers.  Low interest rates are qualifying a broader buyer base, allowing more buyers to acquire a Key West home.  Expect the record setting S&P 500, Russell 2000, Dow and NASDAQ to continue to fuel sales.

 

Optimism.  Both the ISM and PMI Manufacturing Indexs point forward. Air traffic to Key West is increasing.

 

Pessimism. Tourist-based jobs in Key West remain on hold. Rents remain at risk, commercial and residential.

 

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

 

Good luck!

 

Additional Resources: