July's twelve sales were one less than the 5 year (2014 - 2018) average of thirteen, a welcome sight after June's tepid nine sales and a continuation of a strong 1st Half 2019. Thru July, Old Town home sales are up 3% over the 5 year average, up 13% over 2018 and up 17% over 2017. On prices, July's average sales price of $1.467M topped $1M for the 6th time this year. July's average sale price per square foot of $846 brought the year to date average to $801. This is a significant 25% over the 5 year average but flat at 3% over end of 2018 and 11% above end of 2017. 

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The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2010 to July 31, 2019. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of 2019 mid-year sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, is here.

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

• Eight, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 7/31/2019. The average number of days to sell is 72 days.
• There are three 1/1 homes for sale from $499K to $608K.
• The 2019 average sale price of $570,000 is 12% more than the average sale price for 2018.
• The eight homes sold thru June tops total sales in both 2018 and 2017.  In 2015, twelve homes sold, but sales had fallen every year since.
• The average size of the 2019 homes sold is 652 sq.ft., slightly above average. The average sale price per sqft. of $874 is 6% above 2018

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

• Fourteen, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 7/31/2019.  The average number of days to sell is 152 days. (One home at 600+ days).
• The average Sold price of $544,000 is down 31% from 2018 which at $784K was up 41% from 2017. The $544K is 55% above the 2011 low.
• Three 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $599K to $625K.
• Sixteen 2/1's sold in 2016, eleven in 2017, twenty-five in 2018.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 196 sales.

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

• Twenty-four, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 7/31/2019. The average number of  Days to sell is 70 Days, 38% faster than 2018.
• The average sold price of $923,000 is up 10% from 2018 and is 117% above the low in 2009.
• Eighteen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $700,000 and $1.575M.
• The average Sold price per sqft for 2019 is $725.  In 2018 the average was $747, in 2017 the average was $704.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 309 sales.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

• Sixteen, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 7/31/2019. The average number of Days to sell is 109 Days.
• The average Sold price of $1,368,000 is up 28% from 2018 which was 2% above 2017 and is 192% above the 2009 low.
• The average sold price per sqft. is $800, up 16% from 2018.
• Fifteen 3/2's sold in 2016, twenty-seven in 2017 and twenty-five in 2018.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town with 221 sales.

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

• Eighteen, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 7/31/2019. The average number of Days to sell is 108 Days.
• The average sold price of $1.401M is down 9% from 2018 which was 9% above 2017.
• The average Sold price per sqft. of $744 is down 12% from 2018 and is the first down year since 2010.
• Nineteen homes sold in both 2015 and 2016 with twenty-two sales in 2017 and seventeen in 2018.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

• Five, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 7/31/2019.  The average number of days to sell is 124 days.
• The average sold price for 2019 sales is $1.9675M, up 6% over 2018. The 5-year average sales price is $1.732M.
• The average sales price per sqft is $918, up 23% over 2018.
• There are eleven homes for sale, ranging in price from $950K to $3.75M.
• Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an erratic up trend in average sale price since 2013.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

• One, 4Bed/4Bath home has sold in the Old Town area thru 7/31/2019. Days on market was 54 days.  Fourteen homes sold in 2018, the most on record.
• There are five 4/4's for sale ranging from $2.29M to $3.3M.
• The 2019 sold price of $2.25M is down 8% from 2018 which was up 15% over 2017.
• The 2019 sold price per sq.ft. of $1353 is up 48% over 2018 which was 20% above 2017. (This one house sold in July 2019 is located in Truman Annex).
• Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with eight in 2016, six in 2017 and fourteen in 2018.  Price action has been steady, $2M - $2.4M, despite a choppy number of sales.

Conclusion

Sub-4% mortgage rates for 30 and 15 year conforming and Jumbo loans have qualified more buyers and expanded the buyer pool for an Old Town home.  Interestingly, the increase in qualified buyers has not created a buying frenzy or evidence of bidding wars.  Second and investment home buyers are adding Old Town homes to their portfolio of investments and are unwilling to take on undue risk associated with over priced property. Savvy buyers across the benefit:risk spectrum know their niche and are disciplined enough to not stray. (From January 1, 2018 to July 31, 2019, 65% of the buyers of an Old Town home have had a city other than Key West as their primary residence).

Second, I overheard a conversation at a business lunch stating Key West homes on the market for sale are getting smaller and as such buyers are getting less for their money. I do not agree.

The average size of the 98 homes sold thru July in Old Town is 1568 sqft.  This is well within the norm of an Old Town home. For instance, the average size of the two biggest sellers thru July are:

• 2bed/2bath homes. Twenty-four sales. Average size 1273 sqft.
• 3bed/3bath homes. Eighteen sales. Average size 1883 sqft.

Remember, you make your money when you make your purchase and please don't forget to leave room for insurance. 

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

Good luck!