September, October and November are the slowest months for single family sales in Old Town Key West with a 5-year average of less than 10 closings per month. Five closings in September and four in October have stopped the summer boom. Year-to-date home sales are 25% behind sales through October 2015 but are 2% above the 5-year average. Sale prices took a hit in October with only one sale over $1M but average sales price per square foot thru October is still $699 per square foot or 31% above the 5-year average.
The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2006 to October 31, 2016.
These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key. You can view a neighborhood map here. The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.
- Seven, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2016. The average Days of Market was 93 days.
- The 2016 average sale price of $516,000 is 8% above the average sale price for 2015.
- In 2015, twelve 1/1 homes sold, the most since 2001.
- The average size of the 2016 Solds is 648 sq.ft., slightly smaller than 2015; however,
- The average sale price per sqft. is $796. This figure is 12% higher than 2015 and second highest since 2006.
- Twenty-two, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2016. The average Days on Market was 88 days.
- The average Sold price of $556,000 is 5% below 2015 which was 25% more than 2014.
- Nine 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $449K to $1.65M.
- Fifteen 2/1 homes sold in 2011, sixteen in 2012 and twenty-one in 2013 but only fourteen in 2014 so twenty-three sales for 2015 was very encouraging.
- Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town.
- Twenty-three, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2016. The average Days on Market was 114 Days.
- The average sold price of $690,000 is 18% below 2015 and only 62% above the low in 2009.
- Nine 2/2's are for sale, priced between $736,000 and $2.995M.
- Average Sold price per sqft in 2016 is $606, 9% below 2015 which was 15% more than 2014.
- Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 230 sales.
3Bed/2Bath homes are selling on average 114% above the 2009 low.
- Thirteen, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2016. The average Days on Market was 103 Days.
- The average Sold price of $985,000 is 6% above 2015, which was 3% below 2014, and is 114% above the 2009 low.
- Average sold price per sqft. is $682, up 10% from 2015, primarily because the thirteen homes sold are the smallest 3/2 homes sold since 2012.
- Twenty-seven 3/2's sold in 2014 and twenty-one sold in 2015.
- Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town as value buyers take advantage of comparatively large homes at low prices.
3Bed/3Bath are selling on average 91% above the 2010 low.
- Seventeen, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2016. The average Days on Market was 128 Days.
- The average sold price of $1.413M is 16% above 2015 and 91% above the 2010 low.
- The average size of the seventeen sold is 1863 sq.ft., slightly above average; yet, the average Sold price per sqft. of $759 is the highest since 2008.
- Twenty-three 3/3's sold in 2014 and nineteen in 2015.
- Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West.
4Bed/3Bath are selling on average 156% above the 2009 low.
- Twelve, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2016. The average Days of Market was 309 Days.
- The 2016 average sale price of $2.163M is 39% above 2015 which was 10% below the 2014 average sold price. $2.163M is 156% above the 2009 low.
- Average Sold price per sq.ft. is $903 is the highest since 2005.
- The average size of the seven sold is 2396 sq.ft., large beautiful homes.
- This Bed/Bath configuration has finally solidified its price reversal. Plus, the twelve sales in 2012, the highest since 2008, and seven sales in 2015, with a climbing average sales price per square foot, shows strength.
- Eight, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 10/31/2016. The average Days on Market was 225 Days.
- The average Sold price of $2.132M is 4% above the 2015 average Sold price which was 30% above 2014 and is the highest recorded. The $2.132M is 92% above the 2009 low.
- The 2016 average sold price per sq.ft. of $815 is 9% above the 2015 average sold price per sqft which was 24% above 2014.Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with nine sold in 2013, ten in 2014 and six in 2015.
- Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.
Summary
This up leg in Old Town home sales is nearing the end of its seventh year; 2010 thru 2016. The steady up swing in prices has been supported by steady numbers of sales - across both the price and size-of-home spectrum.
Renovators have enjoyed steady work and all of the contractors I know have a healthy backlog; both fixer-uppers and enhancements to already fine homes.
People might argue that the end is near. This is true. Every day we are nearer to the end. But unless some significant external force brings the end nearer to us; mismanagement of interest rates, a major economic or political crisis in Europe or Asia, a series of hurricanes or a terrorist attack on US soil, I do not see the home sales market in Key West abating on its own.
I you see something you like, and you can withstand an external force, go for it.