November is the third month out of the last four, August, October and November, with less than 10 single family home sales in the Old Town Key West area. December requires 16 closings in order to top 2014's record number of sales at 166. And yet, sale prices remain strong and 2015 looks to be the second year in a row with an average sale price per square foot topping $600. However, both the 2nd and 3rd Quarters 2015 had fewer sales than the 2nd and 3rd Quarters of 2014 and, with 4th Quarter sales also lagging, 2016 may shift power to the buyer, causing a reduction in sales prices and/or number of sales.

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2006 to November 30, 2015.

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a neighborhood map here. The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

• Nine1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2015.
• Average sale price of $501,000 is 13% above the average sale price for 2014.
• In 2014, eleven 1/1 homes sold, the most since 2010! Buyers are very choosey about buying smaller Old Town homes.
• The average size of the nine sold is 720 sq.ft., 16% larger than the 2010 - 2014 average. The average sale price per sqft. of $696 is 14% higher, than the 2010 - 2014 average.

2Bed/1Bath and 2Bed/2Bath average sales prices are 74% and 80% above their 2009 low's.

• Twenty-two 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2015.
• Average Sold price of $579,000 is 24% more than 2014 which was 13% more than in 2013.
• Eight 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $495K to $995K.
• Fifteen 2/1 homes sold in 2011, sixteen in 2012 and twenty-one in 2013 but only fourteen in 2014 so twenty-two sales thru November is very encouraging.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town

2Bed/2Bath average sale price is only 3% above 2014's price.

• Forty-one, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2015.
• Average sale price of $764,000 is 3% above 2014 and 80% above the low in 2009.
• Twelve 2/2's are for sale, priced between $365,000 and $1.95M.
• Average sold price per sqft thru November is $653, 14% more than 2014.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West.

3Bed/2Bath and 3Bed/3Bath average sales prices are 113% and 66% above their 2009 low's.

• Nineteen 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2015.
• Average Sold price of $982,000 is 2% above 2014 which was 30% more than 2013 and is up 113% from the 2009 low.
• Average sold price per sqft. is $644, up 14% from 2014.
• Twenty-one 3/2's sold in 2013 and twenty-seven sold in 2014.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the second biggest sellers in Old Town Key West.

3Bed/2Bath and 3Bed/3Bath 2015 average sales prices are only 2% and 1% above 2014 prices.

• Eighteen 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2015.
• Average Sold price of $1.226M is 1% more than 2014 which was 20% more than 2013. Average sold price per sqft. of $681 is 2% more than 2014 and up for the 5th year in a row.
• Twenty-seven 3/3's sold in 2012, the highest recorded, and twenty-six in 2013.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West

4Bed/3Bath and 4Bed/4Bath average sales prices are both 84% above their 2009 lows.

• Seven 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2015.
• Average sale price of $1.551M is 10% lower than the 2014 average sold price which was 59% more than the average Sold price for 2013.
• This Bed/Bath configuration has yet to solidly reverse price decline. HOWEVER. The twelve sales in 2012, the highest since 2008, and eleven sales in 2013, with a climbing average sales price per square foot, shows strength.

4Bed/3Bath average sales price is 10% less than 2014 and the 4Bed/4Bath average sales price is 30% more.

• Six 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2015.
• Average sale price of $2.047M is 30% above the 2014 average Sold price which was 4% above 2013, and 92% above the 2009 low.
• Average sold price per sqft of $750 is 24% above 2014.
• Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with nine sold in 2013 and 10 in 2014.
• Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.

Summary

Without stronger numbers of sales, average sales prices will falter.  If sales stay weak and prices continue to climb, there will come what is called an exhaustion point where prices will collapse - reminiscent of 2006 - 2009.

The shrinking buyer base can be seen in the average number of days to sell a home in Old Town.

Only the 2Bed/2Bath, at an average of 104 days, and the 3Bed/2Bath, at an average of 111 days, list to close is less than 4 months. Four of the other five configurations take a full six months or more.

This is not selling, this is buying a listing and trolling.

Serious sellers should lower their sales price target and buyers must be wary of overextending their purchase price. 

If you have any coments or questions you can contact me here.

Good luck!