Posted: Dec 02, 2019
November Old Town Home Sales Power Forward
You're my blue sky, you're my sunny day

November home sales in Old Town topped expectations with eleven sales, three more than the five year (2014 - 2018) average of eight, hitting 134 sales for January - November.  For the year 2018 there was a total of 137 sales. With nine Contingent and seven Pending, it looks like 2019 will top 2018, which topped both 2016 and 2017 in sales. In Prices, the average Sales price of $1.3M topped $1M for the tenth month this year. The average sales per per square foot of $863 was the third highest in 2019 and raised the average for the year to $832, 31% over the five year average, 15% over 2017 and 6% over 2018.

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The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2010 to November 30, 2019. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of 2019 mid-year sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, is here.

 

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Eight, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2019. The average number of days to sell is 72 days.
  • There are four 1/1 homes for sale from $585K to $738K.
  • The 2019 average sale price of $570,000 is 12% more than the average sale price for 2018 and 192% above the 2011 low.
  • The eight homes sold thru November tops total sales in both 2018 and 2017.  In 2015, twelve homes sold, but sales had fallen every year since.
  • The average size of the 2019 homes sold is 652 sq.ft., slightly above average. The average sale price per sqft. of $874 is 6% above 2018

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

 

  • Eighteen, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2019.  The average number of days to sell is 129 days.
  • The average Sold price of $543,000 is down 31% from 2018 which at $784K was up 41% from 2017. The $543K is 54% above the 2011 low.
  • Two 2/1 homes are for sale with prices at $625K and $799K.
  • Sixteen 2/1's sold in 2016, eleven in 2017, twenty-five in 2018.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 199 sales.

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Twenty-seven, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2019. The average number of  Days to sell is 72 Days, 36% faster than 2018.
  • The average sold price of $911,000 is up 9% from 2018 and is 114% above the low in 2009.
  • Fifteen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $725K and $1.575M.
  • The average Sold price per sqft for 2019 is $718.  In 2018 the average was $747, in 2017 the average was $704.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 312 sales.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Twenty-one, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2019. The average number of Days to sell is 110 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $1,302,000 is up 24% from 2018 which was 2% above 2017 and is 184% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $807, up 18% from 2018.
  • Fifteen 3/2's sold in 2016, twenty-seven in 2017 and twenty-five in 2018.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town with 226 sales.

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Twenty-five, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2019. The average number of Days to sell is 131 Days.
  • The average sold price of $1.401M is down 9% from 2018 which was 9% above 2017.
  • The average Sold price per sqft. of $769 is down 9% from 2018 and is the first down year since 2010.
  • Nineteen homes sold in both 2015 and 2016 with twenty-two sales in 2017 and seventeen in 2018.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

 

  • Five, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2019.  The average number of days to sell is 124 days.
  • The average sold price for 2019 sales is $1.9675M, up 6% over 2018 and 133% above the 2009 low.  The 5-year average sales price is $1.732M.
  • The average sales price per sqft is $918, up 23% over 2018.
  • There are ten homes for sale, ranging in price from $899K to $3.75M.
  • Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an erratic up trend in average sale price since 2013.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Five, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 11/30/2019. Average days on market is 52 days.  Fourteen homes sold in 2018, the most on record.
  • There are six 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.78M to $3.2M.
  • The 2019 average sold price of $2.43M is the same as 2018 which was up 15% over 2017.
  • The 2019 average sold price per sq.ft. of $1120 is up 23% over 2018. (Two of the sold houses are located in Truman Annex).
  • Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with eight in 2016, six in 2017 and fourteen in 2018.  Price action has been steady, $2M - $2.4M, despite a choppy number of sales.

Summary

 

Of the 134 sales for the year through November, 73 have been in cash, yielding 52% of sales.  This is exactly in line with the five year (2014 - 2018) average.  Showing that both cash buyers and mortgage buyers who are now able to buy the Key West market due to lower interest rates, view the Key West market as a "Buy".

 

"Construction Loans" known as 203K loans have shown an uptick as both first-time and experienced buyers have used these loans to purchase and renovated semi-improved and marginal properties. 

 

What looms on the horizon remains flood insurance and unaffordable work force housing.  Flood re-zoning is in its final stages from FEMA and every property owner and buyer must be aware of the projected increase in rates.  Nearly all of the neighborhoods in the Old Town area are going to be affected. 

 

Unaffordable work force housing continues to push the Key West labor force off island.  Much of this is due to 12-month rental properties being converted into vacational rentals.  Unlike flood insurance whose influences are external, solutions to work force housing are internal to the Key West politik. 

 

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

 

Good luck!