Posted: Mar 04, 2024
Key West Old Town home sales in February hold steady
Sunset atop the La Concha Hotel

Eleven single family homes sold in the Old Town area of Key West in February bringing total sales for Jan-Feb to 23, only three behind the 5-year (2019 - 2023) average of sales for Jan-Feb which is 26.  Eleven sales is the fifth month of double digit sales since June 2022 and the first back-to-back months of double digit sales since Feb-March 2023. Jan-Feb 2023 had 15 sales. On Prices, the eleven homes sold in February had an average sold price of $2.1M. The YTD average sold price per sqft of $1275 is nearly identical to end of 2023 figure which was $1278.

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The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2015 to February 29, 2024. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of the number of sales and sale prices for each of these six neighborhoods for the full year of 2023 is here.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Three, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2024. The number of days on market was 94 days. For all 2023, seven homes sold at an average number of days to sell of 24 days.
  • The average Sold price for the three 2024 sales is $790K which is down 3% from 2023 yet 305% above the 2011 low. In 2023, seven homes sold at an average sale price for of $817K.
  • There are two 1/1's for sale priced at $699K and $999K.
  • The 2024 sales have an average of 580 sqft at an average of $1362 per sqft.  In 2023, the average size was 603 sq.ft. and the average sold price per sqft. was $1356.

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Three, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2024 at an average of 112 days to sell.  For all 2023, six homes sold at an average of 88 days to sell.
  • The 2024 average sold price of $1.041M is down 17% from 2023 and 214% above the 2011 low.
  • The 2024 average sold price per square foot of $1359 is up 9% over 2023 and is the highest ever.
  • There are six 2/1 homes for sale priced between $715K and $2.495M.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 252 sales

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Three, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2024 at an average of 73 days on market. For all 2023, fifteen homes sold at an average of 46 days to sell. Fifteen sales was the fewest since 2008.
  • The 2024 average Sold price of $1.448M is down 11% from 2023 and 241% above the low in 2009.
  • Fourteen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $875K and $1.9M.
  • The 2024 average Sold price per sqft of $1252 is down 3% from 2023.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 447 sold.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Six, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2024. The average number of Days to sell is 53 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $2.44M is up 40% over 2023 and is 430% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $1352, up 18% over 2023.
  • Sixteen 3/2 homes sold in 2023, fewest since 2016.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town, exceeding twenty sales every year since 2013 except in 2016. Total sales since 2009 is 355 sales.

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Three, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2024. The average number of days on market was 5 Days. For all 2023, 14 homes sold at an average of 110 Days.
  • The 2024 average sold price is $2.075M, down 15% from 2023 and 181% above the 2010 low.
  • The 2024 average Sold price per sqft. is $1316, down 8% from 2023.
  • Fourteen homes sold in 2023, fewest since 2011.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West with 294 sales

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • One, 4bed/3bath home has sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2024. For all 2023, 5 homes sold at an average of 40 days to sell. In 2022, 13 homes sold at an average of 66 days to sell.
  • The 2024 sold price of $1.2M is down 62% from 2023 and is 271% above the 2009 low.
  • The 2024 sold price per sq.ft. of $898K is down 28% from 2023.  2022 had the highest ever average sale price per sqft of $1418.
  • There are eleven 4/3 homes for sale priced between $2.5M and $5.6M.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • One, 4Bed/4Bath home has sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2024. For all 2023, nine homes sold at an average of 39 days to sell.  In 2022, nine homes sold at an average 49 days.
  • The 2024 sold price of $5M is up 66% over 2023 and is up 349% over the 2009 low. The 2024 sold price per sq.ft. of $1538 is up 38% over 2023.
  • Since 2003, the average number of annual sales is six, with nine in 2022, eighteen in 2021 and two in 2020.
  • Despite the choppy number of sales, price action has steadily climbed from $2.M in 2015 to $3M in 2023.

Conclusion

 

Through February, inventory has leapt to 94 homes for sale, a 36 month high.  The breakdown is:

  • Under $500K - 0
  • $500K - $1M - 5
  • $1M - $1.5M - 17
  • $1.5M - $2M - 14
  • $2M - $2.5M - 12
  • $2.5M - $3M - 11
  • Over $3M - 35

There are 15 Contingent and Pending contracts for sale, just enough to get us through March.

 

Cash sales dominate at 65% for Jan-Feb as the surging stock markets encourage stock sales with the resulting Cash being converted by pre-retirement owner/investors into near risk-free Old Town real estate.

 

Final note - an "average" Old Town home is rated not at 75/100 points but, for instance, at 92/100 points. This high average rating and accompanying Price, both reflecting the condition and amenities of the property, create a sizeable barrier to entry resulting in a very small buyer pool. For every additional 1 point of rating increase; that is, from 92 to 93 points, the seller must invest 3 points of improvement. This ever steepening curve compels the seller to price their property ever higher, even as the sale price will not recover full investment costs and shrinks an already pocket pool of buyers. The mirror issue is, not all properties have received this level of investment yet they too are trying to sell at 93 points (free riders). As a buyer interested in a 89 point property selling at 93 points, make your offer at 89 points.  An intelligent seller and seller's agent will acknowledge that the opportunity costs saved; i.e., the amount of money NOT spent on improvements, already exists as Profit for the seller and your 89 point offer will be accepted.  If not, do not be afraid to walk away.

 

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

 

Good luck in 2024!

 

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