Posted: Sep 05, 2018
Home Sales Flat in August as Prices Spike
Rain or shine don't matter.

Ten single family home sales in August is four less than the 5-year, 2013 - 2017, average for sales in August and brings the year to date sales total to 97.  Ninety-seven sales is two more than thru August 2017 but is 9% less than thru August 2016 and 13% less than the 5-year average of 112 sales. August is the 6th month in 2018 where sales were less than their respective 5-year monthly average.  On prices, August was the 6th month is 2018 with an average sales price of over $1M.  Also, the average sales price per square foot of $846 was the highest in 2018 and only the 4th time since January 2016 to top $800. This price per sqft run-up in 2018 has occured exclusively in 2bed/1bath (Up 35%) and 2bed/2bath (Up 21%) homes. Otherwise 2018 vs. 2017 changes in average sales price per sqft for one, three and four bedroom homes has been from -3% to +3%.

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The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2008 to August 31, 2018. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of 2018 mid-year sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, is here.

 

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Four, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 8/31/2018. The average number of days to sell is 45 days.
  • There are three 1/1 homes for sale from $499K to $699K..
  • The 2018 average sale price of $467,000 is 13% less than the average sale price for 2017.
  • In 2015, twelve homes sold, the most since 2001. In 2016, 9 sold. In 2017 there were 4 sales.
  • The average size of the 2018 homes sold is 560 sq.ft., well below average; however, the average sale price per sqft. of $835 is only 3% below 2017.

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Eighteen, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 8/31/2018.  The average number of days to sell is 67 days.
  • The average Sold price of $801,000 is up 44% from 2017 which at $557K was down 4% from 2016. The $801K is 141% above the 2011 low.
  • Eight 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $575K to $875K.
  • Sixteen 2/1's sold in 2016, eleven in 2017.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 175 sales.

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Eighteen, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 8/31/2018. The number of  Days to sell is 119 Days, 21% longer than 2017.
  • The average sold price of $946,000 is up 6% from 2017 and is 123% above the low in 2009.
  • Eleven2/2's are for sale, priced between $649,000 and $1.48M.
  • The average Sold price per sqft for 2018 is $850.  In 2017 the average was $704, in 2016 the average was $614.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 276 sales.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Nineteen, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 8/31/2018. The number of Days to sell is 135 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $1,111,000 is up 10% from 2017 which was 2% below 2016 and is 141% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $694, up 3% from 2017.
  • Twenty-one 3/2's sold in 2015, fifteen in 2016 and twenty-seven in 2017.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town with 199 sales.

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Fourteen, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 8/31/2018. The average number of Days to sell is 140 Days.
  • The average sold price of $1.428M is up 1% from 2017 which was 1% below 2016.
  • The average Sold price per sqft. of $797 is down 1% from 2017.  2017's $806 was the highest since 2005.
  • Nineteen homes sold in both 2015 and 2016 with twenty-two sales in 2017.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Five, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 8/31/2018.  Avrage number of days to sell is 92 days.  In 2017, the average number of Days to sell was 51 days.
  • The average home sold price thru August is $1.944M, up 31% over 2017. In 2017 the average sale price of $1.488M was 27% below 2016 with the 5-year average sales price of $1.525M.
  • There are 8 homes for sale ranging in price from $1.75M to $3.75M.
  • Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an upward trend in average sale price since 2013.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Ten, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 8/31/2018. The average number of Days to sell is 126 days. Ten sales equals the record for sales set in 2014.
  • There are seven 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.6M to $6.25M.
  • The 2018 average Sold price of $2.26M is up 6% from 2017 which was 1% below 2016.
  • The average sold price per sq.ft. of $787 is 3% above 2017.
  • Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with six in 2015, eight in 2016 and six in 2017.Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.

Summary

 

Though home sales are not racing forward as in the past, their steadiness, coupled with ever rising prices, (though decelerating) shows a continued confidence in the Key West real estate market. Likewise, confidence in the buyers' present and future financial status, stability in equity and bond markets and that their new home in Key West will have a lasting and positive impact on the buyer's personal net worth.

 

Average number of days to sell exceeds 130 days only for three bedroom homes and most realtors have a list of buyers waiting in the wings for that one property that fits their needs and desires.

 

Inventory is adequate, steady the past 4 months at around 100+/- for sale at any given time, though the ranks of "reasonably priced" homes shrinks every day; presently two under $500K, three under $600K and seven under $700K. 

 

Let's hope City of Key West core residential services; Building, Engineering and Utilities will keep pace with the increasing "richness" of the ranks of its ownership.

 

If you have any comments and questions, please contact me here.

 

Good luck!