Posted: Apr 02, 2021
1st Qtr 2021 Old Town Key West Homes Sales Best Ever

More single family homes sold in Old Town Key West in 1st Qtr 2021 than in any other Quarter ever.  Seventy-one sales for the Qtr; 20 in January, 21 in February and 30 in March - each month a record for that month! The previous quarterly record for sales was 2nd Qtr 2015 at 58 sales. In 2020 the number of sales per quarter was 32/25/39/46. On Prices, the average sales price at the end of the Qtr was $1.646M at an average of $872 per square foot. At the end of 2020 the average sales prices was $1.285M, identical to 2019, at an average of $777 per square foot.

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The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2012 to March 31, 2021. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  A neighborhood by neighborhood analysis of full year 2020 sales, is here.

 

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Three, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2021. The average number of days to sell is 27 days.
  • There are four 1/1 homes for sale priced between $599K and $995K.
  • The 2021 average sale price of $533,000 is identical to the average sale price for 2020 and 174% above the 2011 low.
  • In 2020 there were ten sales, the best since 2015 when twelve homes sold.
  • The average size of the 2021 homes sold is 476sq.ft., well below average. The average sale price per sqft. of $1120 is 33% above 2020

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

 

  • Zero, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2021.
  • In 2020, the average Sold price of $629,000 was 12% above 2019 which at $560K was down 29% from 2018. The $629K was 89% above the 2011 low. 
  • Four 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $629K to $925K.
  • Twenty-one homes sold in 2019, eight in 2020.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 211 sales

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Twelve, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2021. The number of  Days to sell is 96 Days.
  • The average sold price of $988,000 is 9% higher than the 2020 end of year price of $905K, which was the highest average sold price since 2006 and is 132% above the low in 2009.
  • Six 2/2's are for sale, priced between $740K and $1.295M.
  • The 2021 average Sold price per sqft is $816, up 6% from 2020.  In 2019 the average was $724, in 2018 the average was $747.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 361 sales

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Seventeen, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2021. The average number of Days to sell is 85 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $1,3437,000 is up 21% over 2020 and is 191% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $827, up 13% over 2020.
  • Twenty-six homes sold in 2019, thirty in 2020, the most ever.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town, exceeding twenty sales every year since 2013 except in 2016. Total sales since 2009 is 278 sales

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Fourteen, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2021. The average number of Days to sell is 111 Days.
  • The 2021 average sold price of $1.623M is 9% above 2020 which was 8% over 2019. $1.623M is 120% above the 2010 low.
  • The average Sold price per sqft. of $921 is down 1% from 2020 and is the second highest recorded for 3/3 homes.
  • Twenty-six homes sold in 2019 and nineteen in 2020.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West with 232 sales.

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Four, 4bed/3bath home sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2021. The number of days to sell is 132 days.
  • The average sold price of $2.213M, is up 38% from 2020 and is 162% above the 2009 low.
  • Sixteen 4/3's sold in 2020, more than 2019 and 2018 combined. Sixteen solds is the highest annual total since seventeen sold in 2008!
  • The 2021 sales price per sqft of $988 is up 35% over 2020.
  • There are six homes for sale, ranging in price from $1.215M to $3.39M.
  • Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an erratic up trend in average sale price since 2013.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Nine, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2021. Average number of Days to sell is 69 days. Nine Solds is the most since the total for all of 2018 which was 14.
  • There are four 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.265M to $3.2M.
  • The 2021 average sold price of $2.613 is 5% above 2020 which was up 3% over 2019 and is up 124% over the 2009 low.
  • The 2021 average sold price per sq.ft. of $1004 is down 10% from 2020.
  • Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with fourteen in 2018, five in 2019 and two in 2020.  Despite the choppy number of sales, price action has been steady, $2M - $2.4M.

Summary

 

It began in July 2020 - The Surge. And every month since, sales have exceeded the five year average of sales for that month. The 4th Qtr 2020 was the strongest Qtr for the year.

 

Another shift is underway, the shift to larger homes.  The traditional buyer of an Old Town home has been a couple, young or old, few if any chidren and those with children usually the kids were grownup. They visited.

 

Buyers are shifting to larger homes. For the first time ever, three bedroom homes are outselling two bedroom homes. Many couples are still parents, with college kids staying and learning at home or at least being given enough space and privacy to do so at the option of the family.

Conclusion

 

Buyers seek out Key West for enhanced Quality of Life.  Poetic architecture, harmonious living, clean air and water, easy transportation. Buyers are making a commitment with 52% of all sales in Q1 2020 in cash.  That's confidence in the reality that Key West real estate has staying power.

 

Twenty-eight Contingent and eighteen Pending contracts will keep this commitment rolling.

 

Is there a Bubble?  Yes, but not in real estate.  The Bubble is in the value of the public services rendered.  The basics - well paved and clean streets, safe sidewalks and city-owned trees, responsive City Hall, balanced and effective policing, attentive school boards and administrators, housing authorities.  Incorporating the experience of "outsiders" into these service areas is not embraced by many who have staked their claim to control Key West.

 

The Surge is bringing more than financial strength to Key West. The City would do well to adapt the wisdom, culture of self discipline and ethic of entrepreneurship many newcomers possess and for which they have been well rewarded.

 

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

 

Good luck!